Hijack!

[Coop]

You can bet your ass that the shortage is not due to the USA as we depend on others for just about everything and that s*#t has to stop or we’re screwed! 

I needed an opening for a rant. Thanks! 

[Chestnut]

11 hours ago, legenddc said:

If you have an extra vehicle now is a good time to sell it. We've played with the idea of going down to one car but with 2 kids who will be in 2 different schools I don't think we can pull it off until prices normalize.

So having 2 extra vehicles is foolish?

[legenddc]

 

9 hours ago, Coop said:

You can bet your ass that the shortage is not due to the USA as we depend on others for just about everything and that s*#t has to stop or we’re screwed! 

I needed an opening for a rant. Thanks! 

Staying away from the politics of this. I know where you're going with this. The chip shortage seems to be caused by both tighter supply and skyrocketed demand. Many auto manufacturer's stopped buying chips at the start of the pandemic. Chipmakers then sold chips to electronics manufacturers. I'd guess more computers and monitors were sold last year then anticipated as people set up offices at their houses and kids needed computers for virtual school.

I did hear about a proposed tax break for chip manufacturers setting up facilities in the US.

35 minutes ago, Chestnut said:

So having 2 extra vehicles is foolish?

If you can afford it do whatever you want. Part of why we thought about going to one car is I want to upgrade mine when this is over.

[Mark J]

43 minutes ago, legenddc said:

Many auto manufacturer's stopped buying chips at the start of the pandemic. Chipmakers then sold chips to electronics manufacturers. I'd guess more computers and monitors were sold last year then anticipated as people set up offices at their houses and kids needed computers for virtual school.

So my thinking is the demand for computers, etc. should be slacking off as workers and students have purchased what they need, and as people return to offices and classrooms.  

[wtnhighlander]

1 hour ago, Chestnut said:

So having 2 extra vehicles is foolish?

No, but depending on how many are up on blocks in the front yard, might leave you open to a Foxworthy joke!

[legenddc]

I'll try to talk to a friend in the industry today but in theory the chip shortage should be resolved towards the end of the year. Dealers may push back on taking more inventory as their costs are down and profits are up. Seems like the truck driver shortage is still happening.

[Chestnut]

1 hour ago, legenddc said:

If you can afford it do whatever you want. Part of why we thought about going to one car is I want to upgrade mine when this is over.

Affording it and doing what i want doesn't make it any more or less foolish.

It's just really hard to sell a car that's 100% paid for and really doesn't cost much. Espically when it's the best winter driving vehicle we own despite only driving it 3,000 miles a year at best. Those 3,000 miles are almost always through a blizzard and on slippery roads. But i have to admit it is really tempting to sell my car and pickup while the market is hot and try and buy something in a year when things cool off. But that seems risky.

[wtnhighlander]

17 minutes ago, Mark J said:

So my thinking is the demand for computers, etc. should be slacking off as workers and students have purchased what they need, and as people return to offices and classrooms.  

I feel like most of the shortages (not just cars, all sorts of electronic gear) aren't to blame on lack of "chips" specifically. I have yet to hear of any particular chip type that is in short supply, and there are chip mfg.s all over the globe. General supply chain hiccups, and a surge in demand following the pandemic slowdown seem more likely to me.

[wtnhighlander]

2 minutes ago, Chestnut said:

But i have to admit it is really tempting to sell my car and pickup while the market is hot and try and buy something in a year when things cool off. But that seems risky.

Drew, it seems like the risk would be minimal for you, having other vehicles to drive. I doubt this market will last long, although new vehicle prices will probably not return to 2019 levels.

[Chestnut]

3 minutes ago, wtnhighlander said:

Drew, it seems like the risk would be minimal for you, having other vehicles to drive. I doubt this market will last long, although new vehicle prices will probably not return to 2019 levels.

When i saw 2 extra that'd put us down to 1 vehicle, Megan works from home. It would defiantly cramp our feeling of freedom but she drives maybe 500 miles a year. The risk is being able to make money off of the matter, If it's less than profit it's not worth it to loose the freedom and reliability.

I've said countless times the peace of mind having a spare vehicle, even if it's a $500 junk beater is such a nice luxury it's hard to understand. There is never any vehicle stress. If you need to sell and buy there is no immediate pressure so you can get what you want for the price you want. A car breaks and needs a fix, no sweat take your backup. I would drive the junker daily and then save the nice vehicle for when the junker needs fixing. I loved driving a junker. Never had to worry about door dings, scratches, potholes etc. Just drive and not care. Don't have to get upset when you spill your lunch on your lap. Some one bumps you at a stop light... what ever just blends in to the other scratches.

[legenddc]

Just looked up some new cars and the ones I looked up are all 15-20% up from when I had last looked. Quickly talked to my buddy who said they have no clue when things will get better. They keep thinking it can't get worse and then news comes out and it does.

[pkinneb]

It will get better when supplies go up

FWIW on the wood front futures on construction lumber have been falling for several weeks and local data supports higher inventories as well. I have been two Home Depots and two Menards in different states (MN & IN) in the last 10 days and all had full racks of plywood and 2x. I suspect a fall in prices is not far off.

[krtwood]

17 hours ago, legenddc said:

 

The chip shortage seems to be caused by both tighter supply and skyrocketed demand. Many auto manufacturer's stopped buying chips at the start of the pandemic. Chipmakers then sold chips to electronics manufacturers. I'd guess more computers and monitors were sold last year then anticipated as people set up offices at their houses and kids needed computers for virtual school.

I saw this somewhere else on the interwebs and don't know how accurate it is.  They said that the automakers used to order their chips on an older generation of chip fabrication processing.  Electronic device manufacturers tend to want to use the latest generation.  So the automakers were the main customer on the older generation machines.  Expecting a drop in demand for cars, the automakers cancelled their orders for chips.  Now apparently these chip fabrication machines have to keep running close to full usage.  If they shut down and cool down completely it damages them.  Having lost their main customers for those products, the chip manufacturers scrapped those machines.  So now when the car manufacturers came back to order their chips the chip manufacturers told them to pound sand, redesign their chips for the newer machines and get in line behind everybody else.  Meanwhile demand for the chips using the new process was already outstripping production capacity even before the car manufacturers got in line.  Now presumably the chip manufacturers scrapped those machines in order to replace them with current ones, but until those new machines got online all of the capacity that the car manufactures were using simply ceased to exist.

TL;DR: The car manufacturers shot themselves in the foot because they are cheap and didn't understand their relationship with their suppliers.

[Mark J]

That's interesting, in a disconcerting sort of way.  

I agree that two cars offer security.  We've used Enterprise quite a bit in the past, but renting a car is a pain.  I had to bring one vehicle to the dealer and it was just so easy to do with two cars.

[legenddc]

10 hours ago, krtwood said:

TL;DR: The car manufacturers shot themselves in the foot because they are cheap and didn't understand their relationship with their suppliers.

That probably sums it all up!

Was at Home Depot and checked on 2x4 prices since I keep hearing prices are down. They were better stocked but still over $8/each.

[Coop]

Happy Fathers Day to all on the dads out there.

And @treeslayer, for him it was an extra special day.

 

[legenddc]

After what feels like months of trying to figure out what my wife wants for a TV stand I think we've finally decided on a rough design.

Ideally she wants this but we'd have to shorten it up too much so...

I think this is the winner.

That one will still need to be shortened in height and lengthened in width for what she wants. At least with this one if it looks awful so short I can build a new stand and do something else with it. I'd like to be able to get the coffee table design agreed so I can get all the wood at once. We'll be gone for the next few weekends anyway so I probably won't get to start it for a month.

[legenddc]

So in thinking about this some more, does it make more sense to use plywood or wood for the case? I think I will do mitered corners so I'll need something to reinforce them either way

[Chet]

On 6/25/2021 at 9:19 AM, legenddc said:

So in thinking about this some more, does it make more sense to use plywood or wood for the case? I think I will do mitered corners so I'll need something to reinforce them either way

I built the Arts & Craft sideboard you have in the first picture.  A simple looking project on the surface but is pretty challenging.  The Drawers and doors aside the whole thing is one glue up.  I had to have help.

With putting a TV on it you could probable get away with ply for the box with hardwood banding around the front edges.  Having said that I always prefer to build with all hardwood.  No matter what species of ply you choose it always looks plain to me over the true grain of hardwood.  Hardwood just has more life in my opinion.

[Chestnut]

56 minutes ago, legenddc said:

So in thinking about this some more, does it make more sense to use plywood or wood for the case? I think I will do mitered corners so I'll need something to reinforce them either way

I think you should do solid wood and use mitered blind dovetails... If your goign to do it do it right. .

I think solid wood with a reinforced miter would be my best course. I made an MCM console recently and just did M&T butt joints but my design was slightly different and highlighted the construction method.

To "cheat" you could miter the top 2 joints and then have the bottom M&T into the side with domino or other floating tenon method. This will allow some flexibility on the miters so you don't have to nail a perfect long 45 on the top corners. It might make things a bit easier. I'd make the front piece a trim piece so you can cover up the construction. This is also typical for this type of construction.

I put the "cheat" in air quotes because it's not really cheating but using different construction methods to ensure your long miters close properly with out gaps. 

Alternatly check some of Foureyes furniture's videos for making mitred corners that are all but gaurented to close. It does require the use of a tall fence

[legenddc]

28 minutes ago, Chet said:

I built the Arts & Craft sideboard you have in the first picture.  A simple looking project on the surface but is pretty challenging.  The Drawers and doors aside the whole thing is one glue up.  I had to have help.

With putting a TV on it you could probable get away with ply for the box with hardwood banding around the front edges.  Having said that I always prefer to build with all hardwood.  No matter what species of ply you choose it always looks plain to me over the true grain of hardwood.  Hardwood just has more life in my opinion.

Chet I read your journal and initial inquiry the other day (again) all the way through. It was very helpful and clearly showed my underestimating of the skills required to build it. I find that to be a blessing and a curse at times. I can make sure my dad is available to help with the glue up. Going to need to borrow some of his clamps anyway!

The TV will be mounted to the wall and this placed underneath. I think you've sold me on hardwood. My desktop is walnut ply and while it's nice, it does seems just a bit plain or even flat. Could just be in my head. Around here I'd have to special order cherry plywood and I'd pretty much be stuck with whatever I got.

@Chestnut Thank you for your thoughts. I saw them pop up as I was responding above. I think this project is quite a stretch no matter how I do it since my last project was the Shaker End Table. I don't have a lot of hand tools and still don't have a way to sharpen the ones I do have. I'll have to place an order for some hand tools and sharpening equipment soon since it seems like most everything is delayed.

The "cheat" method you describe seems like a good idea. Even if I miter all the sides having the piece of trim at the front cover it all up. I'll also look up the Foureyes video you recommend.

I think I saw your MCM console build but I'll have to go back and look. You make so much it's hard to keep it all straight.

[Chestnut]

9 minutes ago, legenddc said:

I think I saw your MCM console build but I'll have to go back and look. You make so much it's hard to keep it all straight.

Your telling me. I ran across something i made for a friend years ago. I gave them a compliment on it and was said "hey this is cool where'd you get it?" They then told me I made it for them.... and looked at me like i was a JA.

I was joking with the mitered blind dovetails. I have to tools and some experience and I'd struggle with it.

[legenddc]

11 minutes ago, Chestnut said:

Your telling me. I ran across something i made for a friend years ago. I gave them a compliment on it and was said "hey this is cool where'd you get it?" They then told me I made it for them.... and looked at me like i was a JA.

I was joking with the mitered blind dovetails. I have to tools and some experience and I'd struggle with it.

That's awesome! I'd like to get to that point someday before it's just memory loss from being old!

My list of projects seems to be never-ending so I need to get started on things soon. I'd like to make something nice for my parent's as a thank you for watching our kids the last year. Might be the year of tables. End table, sideboard table, coffee table, sofa table...

[pkinneb]

18 hours ago, Chestnut said:

Your telling me. I ran across something i made for a friend years ago. I gave them a compliment on it and was said "hey this is cool where'd you get it?" They then told me I made it for them.... and looked at me like i was a JA.

I was joking with the mitered blind dovetails. I have to tools and some experience and I'd struggle with it.

Been there!! My aunt was talking about a jewelry box not to long ago that she said I made for her and I'm like I did? I had no recall of it at all. So she goes and grabs it and I was like wow, I did a really nice job on that 

[Chestnut]

I blame you guys. I sold my Canyon. Have a Jeep on order....

I only lost $3k on the Canyon over 4 years and 45k miles... it just seemed too good to be true so i took advantage of the situation. Upgrading to 4 doors leather seats leather trimmed interior, wells and whistles galore. Downgrading to a 5 foot box and a monthly payment .